Vapor Screen

Brazil stands as the world's largest exporter of tobacco leaf and the third-largest producer, with 138,000 farming families—most of them concentrated in the country's southern region—sustaining this vast production. If the global rise of new products such as electronic cigarettes and nicotine pouches continues, demand for this raw material could drop sharply.

The explanation is simple: these products use nicotine, but not necessarily from the tobacco plant. It may come from other leaves rich in the molecule or be synthesized in a laboratory. And even when the nicotine in these new products is derived from tobacco, the demand for raw material is lower.

The future is uncertain. Yet Brazilian tobacco farmers remain unaware of the risks posed by this market shift. Not through any fault of their own—the tobacco industry has been selling them the promise of a bright future, by promoting flashy figures on income growth and rural job creation.

We dug into these numbers, into the reports of the largest companies operating in Brazil, and into the industry's secret archives. We spoke with entrepreneurs in the nicotine business, market consultants, researchers, politicians, and tobacco farmers.

O Joio e O Trigo reveals what lies behind the vapor screen crafted to keep Brazilian tobacco farmers from viewing electronic cigarettes as a threat—and even to win their support for legalization in Brazil.

We also examine the role of public authorities in this scenario. Today, farmers in tobacco-growing regions are pursuing alternatives to tobacco cultivation on their own, but there is little market for other crops, such as food.